Reading an Alchemy result

Whatever event you sent, the result comes back in the same shape, so once you know it you can read any run in under a minute. The sections below the basket have a page of their own, Deeper analysis.

The order of the page

A result reads in the order you would decide:

1. Summary card. What the market prices, and what Alchemy thinks.
2. Alchemy take. The call in plain words, and the three views.
3. Basket trades. The trades for the view you picked. See Basket and budget.
4. Alchemy Ontology, Trade Exposure and Alchemy Inefficiency Trades. The reasoning and other ways to trade it.
5. All trades. Everything for the view, folded.
6. Strategy rules. Only under Alchemy’s pick.

The last line of every result reads: “Ideas, not advice. Marks are live; odds are Polymarket mid prices.” It also names the model that wrote the run.

The summary card

The first card answers the first two questions: what the market thinks, and whether Alchemy agrees.

The headline question and its odds

At the top sits the Polymarket question Alchemy chose as the best match for your event, with its picture. On the right, Odds on Polymarket shows the market’s chance of Yes, and a line such as “+1.8 pts today” when the odds moved today. If no market prices your event, the title is Alchemy’s own wording, the odds read “Current odds” with a dash and “no market prices this yet”. The trades then rely on related markets and instruments.

Market odds vs Alchemy odds

Two numbers matter most, and they mean different things:

• The market’s odds are the price of a Yes share on Polymarket. A Yes share at 9¢ means traders, as a group, price a 9% chance.
• Alchemy odds are the AI model’s own estimate that the event happens. It is an opinion, not a price, and nobody trades at it.

The gap between them is the Edge. If the market says 9% and Alchemy says 20%, the edge is +11 pts, and Alchemy’s pick will lean Yes. A large gap is a reason to look closer, not a guarantee: the market may know something the model missed.

The eight tiles

The same eight tiles appear on every result, in the same order. A tile shows a dash when its number is not known. Hover a tile to see its definition in the app.

Scenarios and odds

The ladder on the left breaks the event into outcomes. Each row shows:

• Market: the Polymarket odds for that outcome, or a dash and “Not listed” when no market prices it.
• Alchemy: Alchemy’s odds for the same outcome.
• The edge in points, in green when Alchemy is higher and red when lower.
• A bar: the filled part is the market’s odds; the marker is Alchemy’s.

A row marked “Implied by the two markets above” is worked out from other markets rather than priced directly. Under the ladder, a small chart shows the headline market’s odds over the last month.

On the same curve and key dates

• On the same curve lists up to four other markets on the same question, such as the same event by a different date, with their odds. When there is no headline market the panel is called Related markets. The lightning button on a row opens an order ticket to buy Yes on that market.
• Key dates shows up to four dates that matter for the event, such as a scheduled meeting or a past sell-off.

Captured and Replay

The bottom of the card says when the result was captured, for example “Captured Nov 11, 1:28 AM”, and how long a live run took. Odds, tiles and the prices on the basket cards are frozen at that moment; only the card charts load live. A saved sample also shows Replay, which plays the steps again.

The Alchemy take

The take is Alchemy’s call in a few sentences: where the event stands, why the market’s price looks right or wrong, and what Alchemy would trade. Click Detailed analysis to open the evidence:

• A short summary of the event.
• Where it stands today and What is priced in.
• A table per venue with three columns: Instrument, Lean (for example Buy Yes or Short) and Channel, the way the event moves that instrument.

The three views

Under Your view you pick how to read the event. The view drives everything below it: the basket, All trades, and the direction of the effects in the Ontology. Under the tabs, a line spells out the world you are trading: If it happens or If it doesn’t, followed by what that outcome means.

How to read a result well

• Start with the edge. If Alchemy and the market agree, there is little to trade on the event itself.
• Check Resolves. A trade tied to an event a year away ties up money for a year, and perps pay or earn funding all that time.
• Check Liquidity before sizing. A thin market can move when you buy.
• Check Captured. A result from last week may no longer match the market, and its tickets start from the old prices. Ask again for fresh numbers.
• Open Learn on a trade before you place it. See Basket and budget.

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