Hyperliquid Outcome Markets

Outcome markets are Hyperliquid’s prediction-style markets, also called HIP-4. You buy shares in an outcome, and the share price moves between 0 and 1 as the market changes its mind. A few terms come up on every outcome market, so start with those.

What it is

• An outcome is a statement with two sides, usually Yes and No. Each side is a share you can buy and sell on Hyperliquid’s order book.
• A question groups several named outcomes where only one can be true, for example a set of price ranges or a list of candidates.
• Some outcomes stand alone and are not part of any question.

A share price reads like a probability. A Yes share at 0.40 means the market prices that outcome at roughly 40%. Many outcome markets are recurring price markets, such as whether an asset will be above a target at a set time, or which price range it will land in. Every order needs your confirmation before it is sent, and nothing here is financial advice. A share on the losing side can go to zero.

Before you trade

Outcome markets share your Hyperliquid balance, but they have a few rules of their own.

• Currency: outcome markets settle in USDC, from the same Hyperliquid balance you use for perps. You do not need a second token. Fund it the same way: USDC from Arbitrum to your Hyperliquid deposit address. See Hyperliquid.
• Sizes are whole shares. You cannot buy 2.5 shares. Ask in shares, or ask in dollars and let the agent round to whole shares.
• Read the real question, not the label. Recurring markets reuse the same display name. Ask the agent to describe a market in words (underlying, target and expiry) before you trade it.
• Very small orders can be rejected for being below the venue’s minimum order value. If that happens, raise the number of shares.

Ask in the app

Prompts like these work in the chat:

• “List the outcome markets on Hyperliquid. Show standalone Yes or No markets and grouped questions separately.”
• “What is the order book for the Yes side of that BTC market?”
• “Buy 20 Yes shares at no more than 0.42. Show the order first.”
• “What outcome shares do I hold, and what are they worth now?”
• “Cancel my open orders on that outcome.”
• “Split 50 USDC into Yes and No shares on that outcome.”

How shares are created and removed

Besides buying and selling on the book, Hyperliquid lets you convert between USDC and shares: Most people only buy and sell. Split and merge matter if you want to hold both sides or make markets.

From your own agent

From your own agent, everything goes through the hyperliquid tool. get_outcome_meta lists the markets, split into standalone binary markets and grouped questions. Shares trade through the normal place_order, modify_order and cancel_order actions with a special asset id, and split_outcome, merge_outcome, merge_question and negate_outcome handle conversion. The asset id formula and side numbering are on the Hyperliquid tool page.

Limits

• Outcome markets take USDC only, on Hyperliquid.
• Sizes are whole shares.
• Markets, sides and expiries come from Hyperliquid and change over time. Always ask for the live list.

FAQ

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